Latest NBC/WSJ/Marist poll out today out of South Carolina shows the following top line:
Hillary 60%, Bernie 32%
In the current poll, Sanders leads Clinton among white Democrats, 51 percent to 46 percent. But Clinton crushes him among African Americans in the state, 68 percent to 21 percent.
Even among African Americans under the age of 45, Clinton is ahead of Sanders by 17 points, 52 percent to 35 percent.
The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll was conducted Feb. 15-17 of 722 likely GOP primary voters (a margin of error of plus-minus 3.6 percentage points) and 425 likely Democratic voters (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points).
8% of SC voters are undecided, only 9% state that they might still vote differently.
This comes on the heels of the following other polls over the last couple of days:
Yesterday:
Foxnews Hillary 56% to 28% 28% margin
Fox News Poll: Clinton still way ahead in South Carolina
Monmouth Hillary 59% to 30%, 29% margin
SOUTH CAROLINA: CLINTON MAINTAINS LEAD Sanders generational appeal does not cross racial lines
Bloomberg Hillary 53% to 21% 22% margin
Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead over Bernie Sanders in South Carolina
ARG Hillary 61% to Bernie 32% 29% margin
It is clear that Hillary will win South Carolina, and she will win the state decisively. It won’t be anywhere near close. That in itself is a big problem for Bernie moving forward, as he has strongly failed to win over African-American voters to his cause, his “revolution”. The question remains, by how much will Hillary win South Carolina. It now appears, looking at all these most recent poll results, more likely that the margin of victory will be in the 20% or higher range than for it to be in the low double digits or high single digits. There were a few polls that had shown the race going under 20%, to 18%, but that seems to be gone now. Any positive movement towards Bernie had come in polls conducted immediately after the New Hampshire results, but that mini-bounce has evaporated.
What does a landslide victory for Hillary in SC mean moving forward? Hillary will get a bounce out of not just a victory in SC but a massive landslide victory, and just 3 days later Super Tuesday happens, with many more landslide or solid victories on the docket in delegate rich states like Texas, Georgia, Virginia, Tennessee, and also Alabama, Arkansas. A big win in South Carolina will also likely net Oklahoma, Massachusetts and Colorado, although the margins of victory in those 3 states will be close, making for delegate ties regardless who wins the states by a few points.
Nevada is next on the docket on Saturday, with Hillary probably in a slight lead there now . 538 has moved the race from a previous 50-50 forecast a few days ago now to a 75% Hillary win projection.
According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has a 75%chance of winning the Nevada caucuses.
Polls-plus forecastPolls-only forecastChance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.
One more thing. For Bernie Nevada is an absolute must-win state. If he loses Nevada and then also South Carolina by a large margin he will have lost 3 of the first 4 states leading into a brutal stretch book ended by Super Tuesday on March 1 and Super Tuesday II on March 15. If Hillary were to lose Nevada by a point or two or three (which means a delegate split) a huge showing in South Carolina leading right into Super Tuesday still has her on solid footing moving forward.