Yesterday’s almost 6 point win in the Nevada caucuses has left the pledged delegates race tied at 51 for the time, with one delegate remaining from NV to be projected. However, according to David Wasserman’s model, Hillary Clinton is 14 delegates ahead of where she needs to be at this point to earn a majority of pledged delegates.
Wasserman’s model had projected that Sen Sanders needed more delegates from Nevada than Sec Clinton, presumably because as a caucus state, Nevada presented an opportunity for Sen Sanders that primaries with large minority populations will not.
As the delegate season progresses, I’ll keep track of this delegate count and the candidates’ position relative to Wasserman’s model. As we learned in 2008, the cold hard math of the delegate race ultimately determines the winner. Next up is the South Carolina primary on Feb 27, where Sec Clinton should be seen as the odds on favorite to win that primary.
| Iowa | 44 | 13 | 31 | 23 | 21 | +10 |
| New Hampshire | 24 | 9 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 0 |
| Nevada | 35 | 15 | 20 | 19* | 15* | +4 |
| 103 | 37 | 66 | 51 | 51 | +14 |
*=projected result — Hillary is guaranteed at least 19 pledged delegates from NV, and Bernie at least 15. One pledged delegate is unallocated at this time.
Wasserman’s full projections from his model is shown to the right.