Florida has been called for Hillary and it’s shaping up to be a huge +30 margin of victory!
xBREAKING: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump win their primaries in Florida. @AP race call at 8 p.m. EST. #Election2016#APracecall
— The Associated Press (@AP) March 16, 2016Almost 1/3 (214) of the delegates are up for grabs in Florida alone and depending on the final outcome, she could net a significant delegate gain in FL. This is a huge win for Clinton campaign. Florida is a must win state for Democrats in November.
North Carolina called for Hillary. It has 107 delegates. That is 321 of the 691 available delegates available tonight in FL and NC alone. Delegates are awarded proportionally, depending on the final voting results.
xNBC News projects Hillary Clinton the winner in the NC Dem primary
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) March 16, 2016Ohio called for Hillary! HUGE VICTORY!
464 total delegates available in FL, NC and OH.
xBREAKING: Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic primary in Ohio. @AP race call at 8:38 p.m. EST. #Election2016#APracecall
— The Associated Press (@AP) March 16, 2016CNN calls Illinois for Clinton!
xCNN projects Hillary Clinton will win Illinois Democratic primary #SuperTuesday#PrimaryDayhttps://t.co/SzIjJeibRGpic.twitter.com/oEhvSWEpTE
— CNN (@CNN) March 16, 2016MSNBC calls Missouri for Clinton. It’s a clean sweep tonight!
xBREAKING: Clinton is the apparent winner in Missouri Dem primary https://t.co/WrpkUn50VV#Decision2016#PrimaryDaypic.twitter.com/UfITzHESNH
— NBC Nightly News (@NBCNightlyNews) March 16, 2016I’ll update the diary as other states are called.
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5 states = 691 delegates total
(Delegate totals per state are in parentheses)
(Click on state for primary voting results)
Florida (214) - Clinton Wins North Carolina (107) - Clinton Wins Illinois (156) - Clinton Wins Ohio (143) - Clinton Wins Missouri (71) Poll closings are first closing times and are shown in Eastern time.::
This is a pledged delegate contest and as Philip Bump’s piece in the Washington Post realistically points out, Clinton is well positioned to win the nomination and her lead is bigger than it looks.
What makes a comeback difficult is, delegates are awarded proportionally. Clinton discovered this reality in 2008. Even with wins in larger states, she couldn't cut into Obama’s much smaller pledged delegate lead.
If Clinton adds another 50 - 75 pledged delegates tonight to her aleady formidable lead of +223, that would make her pledged delegate lead approximately double of what Obama had at any time in 2008. This type of lead would be nearly impossible to overcome, as Dave Wasserman notes below.
Let’s see how the delegate math plays out tonight.
As Clinton tried to play catch-up with Barack Obama, he would get some delegates every time she did. The only times she made big gains against him was in states she won by a wide margin. But the proportional delegate system kept Obama steadily out of reach.
It's worth comparing Obama's 2008 lead in the delegates to Clinton's. Clinton, by virtue of huge margins of victory in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana, has a much bigger lead than Obama did at this point -- or than Obama did at any point. (The data below excludes superdelegates.)
Sanders has won states by big margins, too -- Kansas and Vermont -- but they have far fewer delegates to award.
Let's say that Clinton and Sanders tie in Ohio, Missouri and Illinois and she wins by a 20 points in Florida and North Carolina. Per some back-of-the-envelope math, Clinton would get about 380 delegates to Sanders's 315 -- increasing her lead by about 60 delegates. Even if Sanders wins Illinois, Missouri and Ohio, Clinton will still net more delegates if she wins Florida and North Carolina big.
Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman did the math over the long term:
xA simpler breakdown: if dels split evenly tmw, Bernie would need 55.5% of remaining to tie Clinton - even though he's won just 41.6% so far.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2016