UPDATE: Delegate deficit down to 294. Bernie leads Hillary 46-41 in Reuters national poll of Dem/Ind

I like the yellow line’s trend more than the red one.

Reuters national tracking poll of Democrats and Independents has Bernie leading Hillary by 5 points today. This is big poll, with a five day tracking average. Most respondents complete the survey online, but it is not an “online poll”.

Also, some good news from past contests. The Green Papers is showing that Bernie picked up 1 more delegate than initially reported in FL (73), TX (75) and GA (29) (compared to 538). AP’s tracker is not updated with yesterday’s results but agrees on TX and GA, they seem to have completely incorrect data for FL.

Here are the delegate leads going into last night and today, compared with delegates available:

Lead Available Lead as percent March 21 March 23

322	2033	15.84%
294	1889	15.56%

So with an assist from the re-allocation of delegates in prior races, Bernie has improved the ground he needs to make up among the remaining delegates.

Last night and with Dems Abroad, Bernie picked up 85 delegates for a net gain of 26. That was off my “target”, but ahead of the 538 estimates for a tied race. So we caught up a bit, but need to do more.

STATE DEL TYPE 538 TARGET SUBIR TARGET

ACTUAL

DEL

ACTUAL VOTES VOTES NEEDED TURNOUT ‘O8

AZ	75	Closed Primary	41	46	31	163,366	279,456	455,635
ID	23	Open Caucus	14	16	18	18,638	14,764	21,224
UT	33	Open Caucus	19	21	27	52,183	83,620	131,403
Abroad	13	Open Caucus	6.5	7	9	23,779	12,441	23,105
Total	144		80.5	90	85	257,966	390,281	631,367

All said and done, yesterday was a good day for Bernie. But it wasn’t great. Please get back to phone-banking so we can shrink that delegate deficit further!