FiveThirtyEight has updated their delegate counter and Sanders has gained +4 from Nevada. Previously Nevada split 20 - 15, it’s now Clinton 18 - 17. Clinton’s current lead is, +224 pledged delegates.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
Wisconsin’s 86 delegates are up for grabs tonight.
According to the FiveThirtyEight pledged delegate tracker, Sanders target tonight is 48 and Clinton needs 38. 48 delegates for Sanders would translate into roughly a 56% - 44% victory. Please keep in mind, the scenarios listed are within a few delegates either way depending on how they split per district.
Since Senator Sanders is favored to win tonight, I've listed five winning scenarios for Sanders that can be used to gauge where the contest stands after Wisconsin. Nate’s scenario and the FiveThirtyEight target are included.
Currently Sanders needs 56.44% (986) of the remaining delegates (1,747). After Wisconsin, there will be 1,661 pledged delegates remaining and 21 contests.
Looking at the scenarios below, Sanders needs a +16 win or higher to stay on track according to Nate Silver. If Clinton can keep the Sanders victory margin around 5% - 10%, this would actually be a favorable result for Clinton.
Scenarios for Wisconsin margin of victory, all based on Sanders win
Sanders / 53 - 47 (+6) Sanders / 55 - 45 (+10) Sanders / 56 - 44 (+12) Sanders / 58 - 42 (+16) Sanders / 60 - 40 (+20)Delegate splits for above scenarios, all based on Sanders win
Sanders / 46 - 40 (+6) Sanders / 47 - 39 (+8) Sanders / 48 - 38 (+10) Sanders / 50 - 36 (+14) Sanders / 52 - 34 (+18)Percentage of remaining delegates needed (1,661), based on above scenarios
Sanders / 56.60% Sanders / 56.54% Sanders / 56.48% Sanders / 56.36% Sanders / 56.24%As you can tell by the scenarios, even with a +20 win in Wisconsin, the percentage of delegates needed going forward doesn't drop very much at all. If he wins by +10 or less, Sanders actually falls behind his current pace. The scenarios demonstrate how difficult a comeback is under a system that allocates delegates proportionally.
Everyone please have fun tonight when the returns start coming in, be respectful of your fellow kossacks and share your valuable information in comments. Thank you!