I’m going to review and revise my estimates for NY based on polling, the debate, and additional color for NY. Let’s start off with the polls which all show HIllary Clinton ahead by double digits.
4/15 - 4/17 | 438 LV | 4.6 | 55 | 40 |
4/13 - 4/15 | 1033 LV | 4.4 | 53 | 43 |
4/10 - 4/13 | 591 LV | 4.0 | 57 | 40 |
4/6 - 4/11 | 538 LV | 4.5 | 52 | 42 |
4/6 - 4/11 | 860 LV | 3.3 | 53 | 40 |
4/6 - 4/10 | 557 LV | 4.2 | 55 | 41 |
4/7 - 4/10 | 663 LV | 3.8 | 51 | 40 |
4/8 - 4/10 | 302 LV | 5.6 | 51 | 39 |
4/5 - 4/10 | 632 LV | 4.2 | 50 | 37 |
4/6 - 4/7 | 325 LV | 5.4 | 56 | 38 |
4/4 - 4/7 | 801 LV | 3.5 | 53 | 37 |
Most polls find 7-10% of Likely Voters are undecided, and 15-20% are not firm in their decision. Since I’m doing a district by district analysis, I’m interested in regional information, and there is some scattered across various polls. The Baruch/NY1 poll seemed to confirm my view that the spread in the city is narrower than most analysts think:
Clinton beats Sanders in every region of the state but they are closest in New York City.
Baruch didn’t release cross-tabs, but other pollsters did and there is significant variation. For instance, Quinnipiac and several other pollsters find the spread is widest in NYC, the opposite of Baruch, which appears to be an outlier. The polls agree in general that Upstate New York is where Bernie is strongest.
| 50% | 46% |
| 48% | 49% |
| 47% | 44% |
| 46% | 48% |
| 50% | 43% |
| 48% | 46% |
Bernie looks weakest in the suburbs north and east of New York City.
| 55% | 40% |
| 61% | 36% |
| 51% | 41% |
| 57% | 38% |
| 56% | 36% |
| 56% | 38% |
The polls show Bernie is pretty weak in NYC as well. I disagree with that, looking at enthusiasm, anecdotal information and the large turnout at the rallies. We’ve seen tens of thousands of people show up for Bernie rallies, the total turnout in 2008’s Demcoratic primaries was 892,000 in the five boroughs.
| 53% | 37% |
| 58% | 39% |
| 55% | 38% |
| 54% | 41% |
| 58% | 36% |
| 56% | 38% |
The Quinnipiac, NBC and Siena line up with my view that Hillary is strongest in the suburbs and Bernie is strongest upstate. NBC provided cross-tabs for their April 6-10 poll, they conducted another poll between Apr 10-13 and found similar results:
Geographically, Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead over Sanders in New York City and the suburbs, while the two are running even in Upstate New York -- essentially unchanged from the earlier NBC/WSJ/Marist poll.
And when it comes to religion, Clinton leads among likely New York Democratic primary voters who are Protestant (62 percent to 35 percent), Catholic (61 percent to 36 percent) and Jewish (65 percent to 32 percent).
That last number is interesting, Bernie does weakest among Jewish voters in NY (many are orthodox).
A number of polls have likely voter assumptions which may be under-counting support for Sanders. For instance, in Siena’s sample of likely voters, only 15% were 18-34 years old while 50% were over 55 years of age. In Emerson, 22% were 18-34 and 43% were over 55. In 2008, the exit polls had this breakdown by age:
| 15% | 22% | 33% | 30% |
Siena’s Likely Voter sample would under-count 18-34 year olds even if they voted in the numbers they did in 2008.
My guess is that turnout among 18-29 year olds will be higher than usual in this primary. The question is by how much. The answer may lie in the late surge of registrations among those under 30. 120,311 new Democrats were registered in March (h/t joeknapp), and 69% of them are under 30. We can also get some sense of under 30 turnout from Illinois, which shares a similar mix of urban/rural voters and where both 2008 candidates (Obama/Hillary) could claim a home-state advantage.
| 15% | 19% | 22% | 29% | 15% |
| 17% | 16% | 15% | 31% | 22% |
As an aside, New York has more college students, almost 5% of the population as opposed to less than 4% in Illinois. In Illinois, each candidate has won 78 delegates, Bernie won 48.72% of the vote, Hillary 50.46%. That was an open primary, the polls leading up to Illinois had Hillary up 52-44. You can see that turnout in IL (based on exit polls) seems to have gone up among the youngest and the oldest voters in Illinois.
And here’s what I thinkBernie will outperform the polls in NY, very similar to what happened in Illinois. I don’t think he can make up all the ground, but I think he’ll come in between 46-48%.
As usual it depends on turnout, so keep those calls going. Here’s my district by district prediction including delegates and popular vote totals. Higher voter turnout among younger voters will be key, and I think he will outperform on delegates thanks to strength upstate (something that worked for Hillary in 2008).
My estimate: Bernie gets almost 47% of the state-wide vote and 122 delegates. That gives Hillary a margin of victory of 6% for the popular vote and 3 delegates more than Bernie. In terms of regions, here’s how I see it play out:
| 46.70% | 53.30% |
| 57.51% | 42.49% |
| 55.33% | 44.66% |
Yes this means he outperforms the polls by 5-7% in each region. And no, I don’t believe Kristin Gillibrand breaking into tears will matter much.
Here are my calculations broken down by Congressional District.
| Lee Zeldin-R | 6 | Suburb | 65% | 50% | 3 | 20119 | 42450 |
| Peter King-R | 6 | Suburb | 67% | 46% | 3 | 20694 | 47460 |
| Steve Israel-D | 7 | Suburb | 70% | 39% | 3 | 17545 | 47460 |
| Kathleen Rice-D | 6 | Suburb | 60% | 43% | 3 | 20864 | 51189 |
| Gregory Meeks-D | 6 | NYC | 62% | 48% | 3 | 31898 | 70109 |
| Grace Meng-D | 6 | NYC | 70% | 56% | 3 | 31558 | 59452 |
| Nydia Velazquez-D | 7 | NYC | 64% | 56% | 4 | 37528 | 70701 |
| Hakeem Jeffries-D | 6 | NYC | 56% | 36% | 2 | 32509 | 95270 |
| Yvette Clarke-D | 6 | NYC | 65% | 36% | 2 | 26680 | 78186 |
| Jerrold Nadler-D | 6 | NYC | 56% | 56% | 3 | 54488 | 102652 |
| Dan Donovan-R | 5 | NYC | 65% | 40% | 2 | 16606 | 43797 |
| CarolynMaloney-D | 6 | NYC | 60% | 42% | 3 | 34333 | 86242 |
| Charlie Rangel-D | 6 | NYC | 53% | 45% | 3 | 51182 | 119994 |
| Joseph Crowley-D | 7 | NYC | 62% | 57% | 4 | 37492 | 69394 |
| Jose Serrano-D | 6 | NYC | 68% | 49% | 3 | 32243 | 69421 |
| Eliot Engel-D | 6 | NYC | 55% | 47% | 3 | 29942 | 67211 |
| Nita Lowey-D | 6 | Suburb | 55% | 44% | 3 | 29835 | 71536 |
| Sean Maloney-D | 6 | Suburb | 55% | 47% | 3 | 31869 | 71536 |
| Chris Gibson-R | 5 | Upstate | 60% | 58% | 3 | 55818 | 101531 |
| Paul Tonko-D | 7 | Upstate | 64% | 43% | 3 | 27462 | 67379 |
| Elise Stefanik-R | 6 | Upstate | 68% | 66% | 4 | 28874 | 46155 |
| Richard Hanna-R | 5 | Upstate | 70% | 64% | 3 | 28723 | 47347 |
| Tom Reed-R | 5 | Upstate | 60% | 55% | 3 | 27448 | 52650 |
| John Katko-R | 6 | Upstate | 68% | 62% | 4 | 27147 | 46193 |
| Louise Slaughter-D | 6 | Upstate | 63% | 57% | 3 | 26893 | 49776 |
| Brian Higgins-D | 7 | Upstate | 60% | 53% | 4 | 31710 | 63121 |
| Chris Collins-R | 6 | Upstate | 60% | 54% | 3 | 32308 | 63121 |
| 30 | 14 | ||||||
| 54 | 25 | ||||||
| 247 | 46.84% | 122 | 843767 | 1801333 |
That’s it folks. Go vote tomorrow if you’re in NY. Get out the Vote if you aren’t!