I keep running into comments by people who seem somewhat math challenged and this includes some rather prolific posters and commenters. Now, this isn't anything complicated; it's math that I expected that everyone should have learned in High School. But, perhaps it is more complicated than I thought. I’ll run through it in detail.
First of all, let’s skip the (unpledged) super delegates. In 2008, Clinton began the race with most of them. However, when Obama finished with 97 more pledged delegates, fifty of the super delegates switched from Clinton to Obama. So, they weren’t a factor. It’s reasonable to assume that the same thing would happen this time as well. In other words, even though Clinton has most of super delegates, I believe some would switch to Bernie if he got more pledged delegates than Hillary. So, those of you who are pushing the sour grapes notion that Clinton will win with super delegates, please stop the nonsense. Now, let’s go over the important part, the pledged delegates.
There are a total of 4051 pledged delegates. To get one more than half, you need 2026. Associated Press currently gives Clinton 1705 and Sanders 1415. Wikipedia gives Clinton 1708 and Sanders 1417. FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton 1705 and Sanders 1420. Let’s use the FTE numbers since they are the most favorable to Sanders. So, this will be the best case for Bernie.
How many does Sanders need?
2026 — 1420 = 606
How many pledged delegates are left?
4051 — (1705 + 1420) = 926
So, what percentage does Sanders need?
606 / 926 = 65.44%
To win, Bernie needs 2/3rds of ALL the remaining pledged delegates. Being aware of this, we need to ask if Bernie actually won Indiana. Now, I most what most people will say, “Of course he won Indiana.” And, the Sanders fans will add that this indicates some new-found momentum. But, again, knowing this number, did he win Indiana? Indiana had 83 pledged delegates. Bernie won 44.
44 / 83 = 53%
Whereas 65% of 83 is actually 54
54 — 44 = 10
This means that Senator Sanders fell ten delegates short of a win in Indiana. The fact is that Sanders can win every single primary remaining by the same big margin that he got with Indiana and he will lose the nomination. Don’t believe it? Let’s do the math again.
Sanders won Indiana with 53%.
0.53 * 926 = 491
Sanders currently has 1420
1420 + 491 = 1911
You need 2026 to win
1911 — 2026 = negative 115
I’m not sure how anyone can argue with the math. If Bernie keeps winning like he did in Indiana then he will fall 115 delegates short of the nomination. To be honest, based on what I’ve seen from some posters, this still probably isn’t sinking in. So, let’s run those same calculations for Clinton. She got 39 out of 83 which is about 47%. What if she continues losing this same way?
0.47 * 926 = 435
Clinton currently has 1705
1705 + 435 = 2140
You need 2026 to win
2140 — 2026 = 114
So, if Clinton keeps losing like she did in Indiana then she will win the nomination by 114 delegates.