Clinton's Pledged Delegate Lead Before West Virginia Primary, +283. Benchmark Politics Prediction.

Before tonight’s West Virginia primary, Hillary Clinton’s pledged delegate lead is +283 according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest delegate tracker.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...

According to Nate Silver’s model of the remaining contests, Sanders missed his target in Guam. He needed to win Guam by +43. He lost there. Clinton netted a 4 - 3 split in pledged delegates. 

Next up is West Virginia and Sanders is favored there, but he needs to win by the state by a whopping +52 just to keep pace. Anything less and Sanders falls even further behind.

After tonight’s contest, there will only be 897 pledged delegates remaining. The pool of remaining delegates is dwindling quickly.

Benchmark Politics final benchmark guide of West Virginia is complete and they see Sanders winning the state easily 57% - 43%, but Clinton winning 43% of the vote puts her over the target percentage she needs the rest of the way.

West Virginia County Benchmark Guide - Sanders 57% - Clinton 43% @icoggins1https://t.co/tHuc6nBhxj

Let’s say Benchmark’s final guide is spot on, Sanders would net 17 delegates. Even with those 17 delegates, Sanders would need 588 of the remaining 897 delegates.

In this scenario, Sanders would still need to win 65.6% of the remaining delegates. Sanders would need to win 66% - 34% the rest of the way or a combination of wins that net him 66% of the remaining pledged delegates. 

After tonight, there are just 11 contests remaining, then on to the City of Brotherly Love so we can nominate Hillary as our Democratic nominee. No matter what you read or hear, we will come together as a party and defeat Trump and the GOP In the fall.

In the meantime, ignore the noise and enjoy the primary season as it winds down.