Remember that surprising Oregon poll that came out around a week ago that found former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) with a 48 — 33 (15 point) lead over Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT)?
It is not a hard poll to find these days given how much it has been trumpeted at every opportunity. There have already been several diaries on the Recommended list about this particular poll, each one written in positive terms about Clinton’s chances in Oregon. In fact there’s one up there right now. Naturally, I don’t blame the people who write these diaries for that. If I had found a poll showing my candidate of choice doing far better than I expected in some state (as I have) I would be pretty excited about it too.
That said, I want to make this very clear before proceeding: I am not someone who cannot accept when things are bad for my candidate of choice (Bernie Sanders) or when that candidate has lost or is found to be losing. I am well aware of the state of the race. I am also aware that Oregon is a closed primary, which hurts Sanders due to his consistent underperforming with registered Democrats (take West Virginia as a good example of this). I am further aware that the median age in many rural counties in Oregon is older than average with many counties having one of around 45 to as high as 53 (which is good news for Clinton). Benchmark Politics has an interesting diagram up that illustrates this facet of the Oregon primary and you can view that diagram here.
I don’t usually critique pro Clinton polls. Just because many polls show Clinton in the lead (in many states) does not mean the polls are bogus or that the people running them are bought off by the Clintons (or some other conspiracy one can think of). In fact, many polls turn out to be quite accurate no matter who they predict to be in the lead.
However, I did some research on this Oregon poll mainly because I, a longtime resident of the Northwest (Washington) was curious to see why one of the more liberal states in the nation (Oregon is the 5th most liberal according to a 2013 Gallup poll) would go for Clinton (who has done the best with voters who identify as Moderate) by 15 percentage points. The poll, as some have specified already, provides two models: one for high turnout, and one for average turnout among 304 registered Democratic voters.
Average Turnout data:
| 21 | 43 | 128 | 112 |
| 6.9% | 14.1% | 42.1% | 36.8% |
Total sample for registered Oregon Democrats under 45: 64
Total sample for registered Oregon Democrats over 45: 240
Percentage breakdown for registered Oregon Democrats under 45: 21.0%
Percentage breakdown for registered Oregon Democrats over 45: 79.0%
Bernie Sanders’ Average Turnout Age Breakdown:
| 19/21 | 22/43 | 27/128 | 33/112 |
| 90.4% | 51.1% | 21.1% | 29.4% |
Hillary Clinton’s Average Turnout Age Breakdown:
| 2/21 | 11/43 | 71/128 | 63/112 |
| 9.6% | 25.5% | 55.4% | 56.2% |
Average support for Bernie Sanders among decided Oregon Democrats under 45: 64.0%
Average support for Bernie Sanders among decided Oregon Democrats over 45: 25.0%
Average support for Hillary Clinton among decided Oregon Democrats under 45: 20.3%
Average support for Hillary Clinton among decided Oregon Democrats over 45: 55.8%
Percentage differential among decided Oregon Democrats under 45: 64.0%-25.0% Sanders + 39
Percentage differential among decided Oregon Democrats over 45: 55.8%-25.0% Clinton + 30.8
Total Average Turnout Percentages among decided Oregon Democrats: Clinton 48, Sanders 33 (Clinton +15)
High Turnout data:
(there’s a spacing problem here. No idea how to fix it)
| 27 | 61 | 112 | 103 |
| 8.8% | 20.0% | 36.8% | 33.8% |
Total sample for registered Oregon Democrats under 45: 88
Total sample for registered Oregon Democrats over 45: 216
Percentage breakdown for registered Oregon Democrats under 45: 28.9%
Percentage breakdown for registered Oregon Democrats over 45: 71.1%
Bernie Sanders’ High Turnout Age Breakdown:
| 25/27 | 35/61 | 25/112 | 29/103 |
| 92.5% | 57.1% | 22.3% | 28.1% |
Hillary Clinton’s High Turnout Age Breakdown:
| 2/27 | 15/61 | 62/112 | 59/103 |
| 7.5% | 24.5% | 55.3% | 57.2% |
Average support for Bernie Sanders among decided Oregon Democrats under 45: 68.2%
Average support for Bernie Sanders among decided Oregon Democrats over 45: 25.0%
Average support for Hillary Clinton among decided Oregon Democrats under 45: 19.3%
Average support for Hillary Clinton among decided Oregon Democrats over 45: 56.0%
Percentage differential among decided Oregon Democrats under 45: 68.2%-19.3% Sanders + 49.9
Percentage differential among decided Oregon Democrats over 45: 56.0%-25.0% Clinton + 31
Total High Turnout Percentages among decided Oregon Democrats: Clinton 45, Sanders 38 (Clinton +7)
In other words it’s clear to see from the data that Clinton is beating Sanders in both models because of the massive sample size of voters over 45 compared to that of voters under 45. How so? Well, I’m not an expert (by any means) on the Oregon primary or the age demographics of Oregon but... when 71% let alone 79% of the sample are voters over 45 (and when in 2008 Oregon Democratic Presidential Primary, which was a closed primary at that time, around 43% of the voters were under 45) that certainly represents a “yuuuuge” oversampling of older voters.
Benchmark Politics, which has been a fairly good predictor of many of the 2016 Democratic Presidential primaries and caucuses has Clinton with a 1 point lead over Sanders (50.5% — 49.5%). This prediction, according to their site, is an early model so it might change but simply going off of demographics, but it is not an entirely unreasonable assumption. A close race in Oregon could certainly happen. However, that does not account for the enormous number of newly registered Democratic and Republican (although largely Democratic) Oregon voters:
This year's tidal wave of voter registration in Oregon, led by a significantly large surge from young people, could leave the state with its highest participation rate in decades.
A total of 2,293,959 voters, an all-time record, are now registered and eligible to cast ballots in the state.
But there's a catch.
All of those newly minted voters — tens of thousands added by Oregon's new automatic registration system or inspired by Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump — will still have to turn in their ballots by 8 p.m. May 17.
As of Thursday, ballots were pouring in at roughly the same rate as in 2008, when turnout in the primary topped 58 percent. That was the most since 1976.
"In the past, we've seen large numbers of young voters come in and register," said Jim Moore, a political science professor and director of the Tom McCall Center for Policy Innovation at Pacific University.
In 2008, Moore said young voters excited by Barack Obama's presidential run increased their registration numbers by 25 percent before the primary.
"But then what happened?" Moore said. "They simply failed to follow through by actually voting. That's what we'll be waiting to see this time. Will they really bother to vote?"
Only once in modern history, Moore said, have first-time voters turned out in significant numbers. That happened in 1972, when the voting age was lowered to 18 and the youth vote turned out heavily for Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern.
Still, at least the ingredients for a repeat are in place.
In Oregon, the number of registered voters ages 18 to 29 has increased 21 percent since September, according to The Oregonian/OregonLive's analysis of Oregon's voter database.
No other age group has seen even double-digit growth, with voters ages 30 to 39 coming closest, at 9 percent. Registration among voters 60 to 69 years old increased by only 2 percent since September, with 70- to 79-year-olds actually losing a total of 236 registrants.
...
Democratic registration surged 16 percent from September 2015 through April, with Democrats picking up 132,000 new voters over that span. Democrats now account for 42 percent of Oregon's electorate, up from 38 percent less than a year ago.
and this:
Record 110,000 change voter registrations in time for Oregon primaryOf the 111,000 voters who joined the two major parties this year — more than three-quarters of whom were previously nonaffiliated — the biggest chunk, about 84,800, went to Democrats.
Moore said they likely lean toward Oregon's "Bernie-mania" electorate, although it's less clear who they support on the Republican side. The only GOP poll, released last week, showed Trump with a double-digit lead in Oregon.
Additionally, 100,900 new Oregon voters were added to the rolls this year through April — up 42 percent from the same time in 2008, when primary turnout was the highest since then 1970s — and nearly half registered with the two major parties, but mostly Democrats.
Oregon Secretary of State Jeanne Atkins estimates a new "motor voter" law — which automatically signs up drivers to vote when they get a new or renewed license — resulted in half of those new registrations. But she doubts the law had an effect on the party affiliation changes, which means
this year's election is drawing attention and interest "like never before," she said.Sanders needs (roughly) 66% of the remaining pledged delegates to win. Anything less than that in Oregon or any of the remaining states and territories hurts his cause. That said, a Clinton blowout let alone a sizeable win in a state like Oregon is extremely unlikely. With so little polling one can only speculate if the massive number of new voter registrations will change anything, or if Benchmark is right about Oregon being a lot closer than many thought it to be.
Wait and see.
