There are 93 days left before election day November 8. Hillary’s campaign team appears to believe that Florida’s 29 electoral votes are crucial and decisive for success in the general election, and is going all-in to win the state, and with that most likely the general election.
First, let’s look at polling out of the state:
x Embedded ContentThe last two polls out of the state are both good Hillary leads, but only one of these polls has come after both party’s conventions:
Poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in Florida
Hillary Clinton has a 6-point lead over Donald Trump in a new poll in Florida, a critical battleground state in the presidential election.
Suffolk University reported Thursday that Clinton has support from 48 percent of Florida voters; Trump has 42 percent.
A 6% lead at this point of the race in this crucial state is great.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston, said in a statement that two groups combine to give Clinton her lead: Women, among whom Clinton leads Trump 50 percent to 38 percent, and voters in South Florida, where Clinton leads 57 percent to 33 percent.
The Hispanic vote is crucial in Florida and other states, and to that end a new FAU poll shows Hillary surging ahead with Hispanic voters:
Hispanic vote
A nationwide poll released Thursday by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative found Clinton holding a commanding lead among Hispanic voters.
Clinton was favored by 66 percent to 18 percent for Trump. That represents a significant gain for Clinton, who led Trump 50 percent to 27 percent in FAU's May poll of Hispanic voters.
"Clinton's support with Hispanics is growing in our polling," political scientist Kevin Wagner said in a written poll analysis. "That makes it increasingly difficult for Trump in battleground states such as Florida or Colorado where Hispanic voters may be the difference."
The poll, conducted July 1-31, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Hillary Rodham Clinton and Donald Trump battle for soul of Florida
DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — Sen. Tim Kaine, the Democratic vice-presidential candidate, came to the stage here on Tuesday and quickly reminded a racially diverse crowd that it was his second visit to Florida in 10 days.
"I think you can see that to the Clinton team, Florida is really, really important to us," Kaine, D-Virginia, told the crowd at Daytona State College. "You're really important to us."
Florida is always critical in a presidential election, but this year, Daytona Beach, home to the nation's most popular NASCAR race, could prove especially important. Situated in Volusia County, the city sits at the far eastern end of the "I-4 corridor" of swing voters that stretches from Daytona Beach, through Orlando out west to Tampa. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is also scheduled to hold a rally at a convention center here on Wednesday.
The I-4 corridor stretching from Tampa across the state past Orlando to Daytona Beach appears to be one of the most crucial stretches of land in the country for electoral purposes.
Indeed, in addition to Tim Kaine Hillary herself will be back in Florida again this Monday and Tuesday, mirroring her previous 2 day trip through Florida just 2 weeks ago, from July 22nd through July 23rd, which took her from Orlando through Tampa, then Miami the next day. This time it starts in Tampa, goes through Orlando and ends up in Miami again the next day.
Florida’s pivotal 29 electoral votes are crucial. If Hillary wins this state it’s all over for Trump.
Hillary Clinton to speak in St. Pete, Kissimmee
Hillary Clinton, seen here at the Democratic National Convention, will be in Florida next week to talk about jobs. (AP Photo)ST. PETERSBURG --
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton will be in Florida next week to talk about jobs.
Clinton will visit St. Pete, Kissimmee, Miami Democratic nominee to speak about jobs plan St. Pete event at The ColiseumClinton will speak Monday at job rallies hosted by the Florida Democratic Party in St. Petersburg and Kissimmee.
She will discuss her job plan for her first 100 days in office if she's elected in November.
Clinton will then speak Tuesday in Miami. Details of that event have not been released yet.
The St. Petersburg event will begin at 3:30 p.m. at The Coliseum on 535 4th Avenue North. Doors will open at 1:30 p.m.
Residents wanting to attend should RSVP by going to the Clinton campaign website.
Clinton will then head to Osceola Heritage Park in Kissimmee for a rally on jobs. The doors open at 4:30 p.m. and the event starts at 6:30 p.m.
Residents wanting to attend should RSVP by going to the Clinton campaign website.
For those interested in attending either rally, the St. Petersburg jobs rally will be held at the St. Petersburg Coliseum, a beautiful venue dating back to the 1920s that is often used for rock concerts and dance events. Capacity is 2,000, so I would strongly urge you RSVP for this event here:
Rally in St. Petersburg with Hillary Clinton
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The event in Kissimmee is held at Osceola Heritage Park. The indoor venue has a theatre that seats around 2,000 people. Again, best to RSVP before the event so you are guaranteed entry, here:
Rally in Kissimmee with Hillary Clinton
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The event in Miami on Tuesday does not yet have a specific venue or time announced, that should happen sometime later today. I’ll update as details become available.
Across Florida, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is running a targeted television advertising campaign and is poised to launch Latina-to-Latina phone banks targeting Hispanic voters in South and Central Florida.
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The Clinton campaign's aggressive targeting of Latino voters in Florida carries the immediate aim of making sure as many as possible are registered to vote or get re-registered if they are new arrivals from Puerto Rico. The campaign already has "a few hundred" staffers on the ground, according to a Clinton aide. The vast majority are field staff, many of them focused on registration efforts.
Clinton's outreach has included advertising on Spanish-language radio stations and the mobilization of a large number of local elected officials and prominent community activists. In coming weeks, the campaign also plans to bring in outside surrogates, including politicians and entertainers.
The lopsided Florida strategy is also laid out in this article by the AP today:
Charting a road to 270, Hillary Clinton sets out most efficient path
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“The last two elections have given Democrats an electoral path for victory,” said Clinton campaign adviser John Anzelone. “And our strategy is to efficiently use our resources to lock down the support we need to reach 270 electoral votes.”
After a bump in support for Clinton in national polls that followed the Democratic convention and tracked Trump’s recent gaffes, the number of states where Clinton will invest her time and money may get smaller than 11.
When the Clinton campaign booked more than $23 million in new television ad time late this past week to start on Monday, it spent most of the money in just three states: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
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This coming week, Clinton will be in Florida. So will Trump. That’s no surprise, as a win there plus victories in every state (and the District of Columbia) that have voted Democratic since 1992 would give Clinton a winning total of 271 electoral votes. Florida Republican consultant Brett Doster said simply of his state: “If we don’t win here, I just don’t see how we win.”
Despite the 2016 campaign’s unscripted form, Democrat and Republican pollsters alike said in the past week that Florida is competitive and is expected to stay that way into the fall. The largest share of single-state spending in Clinton’s most recent ad buy came in Florida, at more than $4.2 million, and that, plus an aggressive pursuit of Latino voters, may give her a narrow edge.
In Florida’s Orange County, which includes Orlando, the Democratic edge among registered voters has grown by 15 percent since 2008. Since late last year, roughly 1,000 Puerto Rican families a month have relocated to Florida due to the U.S. territory’s fiscal crisis, many of them concentrating in and around Orlando’s heavy service-sector job scene. Bilingual teams of Clinton employees are registering first-time Puerto Rican voters at grocery stores, malls and community centers.
There are now more than 1 Million Puerto Ricans in Florida now, rivalling New York as the top state in the US for Puerto Ricans to live. They overwhelmingly vote Democratic, so they are a major target for registration, GOTV, etc.
Republican pollster Whit Ayers said Trump’s problems in Florida go deeper than his lack of advertising and overwhelmingly unpopular standing among Latinos. He said Trump’s recent criticism of the Muslim family of a fallen U.S. soldier is not likely to sit well in a state with 22 military installations and more than 1.5 million veterans.
“The attack on the Gold Star family makes it unlikely for him to expand in Florida beyond where he is right now,” said Ayers, an adviser to Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.
In the 2012 presidential election, 17 percent of voters in Florida were Hispanic or Latino, according to exit polls. That number is expected to be higher this year.
Latest polls among Hispanics show Hillary with 66% vs. 18% for Trump. If the share of Hispanic voters in Florida grows from 17% to 20% of the electorate, as predicted, the math shows that the state would be unwinnable for Trump, as he only gets a small advantage with White voters (46% to 41% favoring Trump).
This year Florida is THE battleground state, and if Hillary wins here Trump can’t win the election. Hillary’s team understands that and is going all in, is making Florida ground zero for this campaign season. They don’t leave any stone unturned in this state, register as many new voters as they possibly can.
All of Hillary’s efforts in this state will bear major fruits this fall. I have never been as confident of my state going blue before a general election as I am this year.