As he put it in this column for Tuesday’s Washington Post,
By the time it’s done, the whole nation may feel like it needs a shower.
As he puts it immediately after that,
I base this depressing prediction on three assumptions: Polls showing the Obama coalition coming together behind Hillary Clinton are correct; Donald Trump does not want to be embarrassed as a massive loser; and the Republican Party cares more about keeping its majority in the House than about Trump’s tender feelings. Any of these premises can be wrong, but I think they’re sound.
And as he reminds us, John McCain has a favorite saying that “It’s always darkest before it’s totally black.”
Let’s step back for a few moments.
This column went live at about 7:30. Robinson had plenty of time to absorb and ponder all the polling, with that coming out today, both nationally and in battleground territory (eg, Susquehanna in PA), showing Trump continuing to slide.
He had the opportunity to listen to Trump’s speech in Detroit, and to read the nasty and inaccurate tweet about the execution of an Iranian nuclear scientist.
And certainly he has heard some Trump surrogates since the speech.
Clinton has reassembled the Obama coalition. She has broadened it some, thanks to Trump, with college-educated White women.
So what does Trump do? Robinson offers two possibilities:
One is to raise questions in voters’ minds about Clinton. Having already called her “Crooked Hillary” and questioned her mental competence, it’s hard to imagine how the attacks could get much nastier. But I’m afraid they will.
Trump can also try to bring non-college-educated whites – his strongest demographic — out to vote in unprecedented numbers. Theoretically this might allow him to pick off a Rust Belt state or two, although it’s a long shot. “I love the poorly educated,” he said in February. He needs even more of them to love him back.
So what if Trump does get much nastier? I cannot conceive that it would make a difference. An increasing percentage of the electorate has made up its mind that it will not vote for him. His only real path to win is to persuade a similar number of people not to vote for Clinton, and I do not think that is possible. Such a scorched earth policy can have the unfortunately result of further dividing and polarizing a nation that needs badly to heal.
As for the second strategy, there are simply not enough such people for him to win, not without something else radically changing.
Robinson thinks that Trump will double down, both on attacking Clinton, and on immigration and and trade, and
That means more bigotry, more xenophobia and more totally unrealistic promises about the miracles that he and his team of rich-guy economic advisers will magically perform.
Robinson continues with analysis of other aspects of the race, Congressional Republicans wondering about separating themselves from a failing Trump to if possible protect their majorities (although if Clinton has national margins over 10 points they will lose the Senate and the House will also be in play). Of course, if they start to separate themselves from Trump, he will attack them, as Robinson rightly notes.
Which brings us to Robinson’s concluding paragraph, which reinforces what he says at the beginning.
This ought to be a debate about the nation’s future. Thanks to Trump, it promises instead to be an unedifying brawl with kicking, biting and gouging allowed.
I think that may well be likely. If so, I also think it will backfire, widening Clinton’s margin.
So what do you folks think?