Today Nate Silver on 538 wrote a piece called "Clinton’s Lead Is Clear And Steady"
He comments on how the group of polls ( sans Gravis), that do weekly or tracking polls that are mostly robopolls or online polls, are maintaining a steady +5ish advantage for Hillary. Is the Bump over?
So what’s changed? Is Clinton’s convention bounce finally wearing off? Actually, pretty much nothing has changed, according to these polls. Because while we were seeing our fair share of 8- and 10-point leads for Clinton, we generally weren’t seeing them from this group of pollsters, which are (with a couple of exceptions) a Trump-leaning bunch.
he grabbed these pollster and compared their "evolution" and then also how the average has changed since 2015 being that, as he mentions, these are "Trump leaning polls""
Comparing each poll’s most recent result to its long-term average is also instructive. Clinton’s current lead of 4.8 percentage points in these polls is more impressive given that they’ve had her ahead by only 2.4 percentage points on average over the course of the year. By comparison, Clinton’s average lead across all national polls dating back to Nov. 2015 has been about 5 percentage points. In other words, these polls have been a Trump-leaning group — they’ve had a pro-Trump house effect of 2 to 3 percentage points. So their showing of Clinton with a lead of about 5 percentage points is consistent with her being ahead by 7 to 8 points overall.
segwaying into what NYT's The Upshot is showing us what a Hillary Clinton Landslide would look like
It has been three weeks since Democrats gathered for their convention, andHillary Clinton still holds a large and consistent lead in national and battleground state polls.
Her national lead over Donald J. Trump of seven to eight percentage points could slip a bit over the next few weeks. But it has been long enough that much of her expected convention “bounce” should have faded. It leaves Mr. Trump in an unenviable position: No modern candidate who has trailed by this much a few weeks after the conventions has gone on to win the presidency.
So what would a Clinton Landslide Look like? this is a lot to digest and very wonky ( geek alert) . but you should read it.
Interesting how elections have gone through periods of blowouts and close races.
But as Nate mentions there mare "fundamentals" that are not so obvious that could make this year one for the books
These patterns seem to have some relationship with partisanship, with highly partisan epochs tending to produce close elections by guaranteeing each party its fair share of support. Trump’s nomination, however, reflectsprofound disarray within the Republican Party. Furthermore, about 30 percent of Republican or Republican-leaning voters have an unfavorable view of Trump. How many of them will vote for Clinton is hard to say, but parties facing this much internal strife, such as Republicans in 1964 or Democrats in 1972 or 1980, have often suffered landslide losses.
and for fun I am only going ot post the images he created… but the right up for each scenario is fascinating
Ay Dios Mío