First of all, thanks to all of the people who stopped in to read and comment on my DIARY about Trump’s debate preparation. I just love reading and responding to the comments, and these did not disappoint. The majority of commentators felt pretty strongly that Clinton will demolish Trump in the debates. Personally I agree. But it did get me thinking.
There’s an old adage, “sometimes things are not always as they appear”. In this case I prefer to flip that old adage over to read “Things do not always appear as they are”. That is the risk with the upcoming Presidential debates, if Trump shows up.
Vincent Bugliosi is one of the most brilliant men I’ve ever seen. As a prosecutor in L.A. he piled up an insane record of something like 135-1. He is the man who made it a vocation to take down Charles Manson for the Tate-Labianca murders. With Curt Gentry he wrote multiple #1 NY Times bestsellers based on his more sensational cases. In 1996 he bestirred himself to write a searing indictment of almost everyone involved in the O.J. Simpson murder case called “Outrage”. Being a huge Bugliosi fan, I immediately bought a copy, which I read and reread until the pages fell out from the binding. In that book he made a point that has stayed with me, and is the basis for this warning.
Bugliosi was discussing the issue of “public perception”, both in the media and in the public eye. The Simpson prosecutors were seen as “underpaid, scrappy fighters” (prosecutors are not poorly paid) while the Simpson defense “Dream Team” were seen as “brilliant, smooth and polished, the best that money can buy” (even though they all had losing records in criminal prosecution cases). It was all in the image that was projected on them. And then Bugliosi made the perfect correlation. He talked about the lone Reagan-Carter debate. To quote from the book;
In Reagan’s first debate with President Carter, he was inarticulate and unknowledgeable. Moreover he squirmed a lot and appeared uncomfortable.In fact, there were moments when I was embarrassed for him, as we all are when someone performing in front of us is not doing well. Carter, on the other hand, was organized, articulate and very knowledgeable. There was no question in my mind that he had won the debate on both stylistic and substantive points.
I watched that debate and it was my impression as well. Immediately after the debate, they started interviewing campaign staff and surrogates. The Carter people were ebullient, although they carefully tried to not appear overconfident and cocky. The Reagan people were clearly dejected and morose, they saw for themselves how badly “The Boss” had blown this. And then the early polls started coming in. To quote again;
Reagan had won the debate hands down according to the American public. And the survey respondents didn’t say it was simply because they liked Reagan more than Carter. They thought that he performed better, knew what he was talking about better than Carter. What they saw of course was not the actual debate. They saw what they expected to see. In their eyes, at least for debate purposes, they saw a peanut farmer from a one stoplight town in rural Georgia against a famous Hollywood movie star. Obviously the movie star was going to know how to talk and perform better than his opponent.
It didn’t matter a whit that the next day, reporters and op-ed writers confirmed how poorly Reagan had performed, they saw what they expected to see. And the perception was baked in.
This is the risk for Hillary in these debates. Even if the main portion of the media reports it fairly, people have baked in impressions of the candidates. Hillary is a dull, issue and point oriented candidate who comes off as controlled and aloof. Obama had the same problem with being seen as too professorial and appearing to lecture rather than talk. Trump on the other hand is spontaneous, gregarious, brash, the best negotiator in the whole wide world, and a successful businessman who knows what it takes to get the job done from the ground up.
So please. Even if the Orange Julius performs like dog shit, which most of us expect him to do, don’t be surprised if he gets a bump in the polls from his debate performance. Vincent Bugliosi has already shown us the historical precedent.
Thanks as always for reading!