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Leads 45-37-6-2
August 30-Sept 2
1091 Likely Voters
+/- 4.1% MOE
Leads in every age demo except 45-64 (43-45). Leads among men and women. -7 among white voters w/Trump getting 43% of the white vote. In other polls, Clinton has had a small lead among white voters so this could be a sampling issue. No significant numbers of non-AA POCs to draw out a breakdown.
The top line aligns with just about every other poll we’ve seen, and is actually a little better because she generally does +2 higher in 2-way polling. I don’t see a 2 way in this poll in this doc at first glance. If I were to draw out a scenario for Trump to improve nationwide, it would be on the fitness to serve as commander in chief question. That’s where the Clinton campaign has to keep disqualifying him.
The other thing I would add is that this poll asks a lot of questions about emails, honesty and trustworthiness, which functions like a media driven push poll since the media have focused on Hillary controversies and simply ignored Trump. Despite those ‘push poll’ type questions, she has a pretty commanding lead in the State. It suggests to me a stability to her vote.
With Clinton and Kaine planning to spend a lot of time in PA starting tomorrow, I think her numbers will solidify and improve.
I would suggest that the internals of this poll lend support to David Plouffe’s claim that Trump has little to no chance in PA.