After the last few national and state polls indicating Hillary is rebounding, we now have the updated NYT The UpShot trending higher for Clinton in the last week.
Note the trajectory of the graph above, as Clinton is increasing her percentage and Trump is losing ground. It mirrors what we’ve been seeing in the latest polling.
The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls.
Some combinations of electoral votes are much more common than others. The chart below shows the estimated likelihood of each outcome.
Many more ways for us to get 270If you check out the interactive diagram at the link below, you can come up with your own scenarios. Bottom line, Hillary has a much easier time getting to 270.
The interactive diagram below illustrates Mr. Trump’s challenging path to the presidency. Here, we let you control the outcome of the 10 states that have voted most like the nation since 2004, while assuming that Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton win the other states in which they are favored. Above all, this diagram illustrates how important Florida is to Mr. Trump. It is extremely difficult for him to win without it.
Clinton currenty has 751 ways to win the presidency and Trump only has 259 ways to win. More importantly, without Florida Trump is cooked and according to the lastest polling from Monmouth there it’s looking good for Hillary.
Ever changing demographics that favor Democrats and Trump pissing off Latinos are big reason Clinton holds a lead in Florida. Without Latinos, Trump isn't winning Florida. How’s that immigrant bashing been working for Trump these days?
When Al Gore and George W. Bush fought to an effective tie in the state 16 years ago, 78 percent of registered voters were non-Hispanic whites. When Barack Obama edged Mitt Romney in 2012 by less than a point, just 66.5 percent of registered voters were.
Mr. Trump has alienated Hispanic voters, making the last decade of demographic shifts even more potent. According to The Upshot’s estimates, Mr. Trump is losing among Hispanic voters in Florida by a 30-point margin, up from Mr. Romney’s 22-point deficit in similar estimates of 2012. (The estimates are based on a combination of pre-election polling, election results and demographic data.)
Bottom line, things are trending upward for Hillary. We have to keep working, but it appears we’ve turned the corner. Let’s win thing thing! #ImWithHer