We have had a batch of polls, both national and battleground today.
As the various aggregators and predictive models factor them in, we begin to see strong movement in Clinton’s direction.
Of course, when CNN/ORC goes from -2 to +5, with Clinton gaining 4 and Trump losing 3, you get a sense of how strong the movement is.
So let’s look at what we see now.
Poll margins — Pollster.com now up to 5.25. RCP has 3.1% in 2 way and 2.9% in 4 way, both showing relatively strong movement up over past few days.
Percentage changes nationally.
Sam Wang 89%
Nate Silver
Polls only 71.7
Polls plus 68.2
Now cast 79.9
Upshot 78% (this is a big increase in past few days)
Daily Kos 72%
As I listen to Trump surrogates online today, they are spinning hard on all kinds of topics — taxes, the AP story on Trump’s behavior on the Apprentice.
Then there is Trump basically criticizing those vets with PTSD as weak — we are already seeing pushback on this from veterans, individual and in their groups
Trump gave more ammunition, claiming his loss was the result of a recession in the early 90s almost as bad as the Great Depression and far worse than the Great Recession of 08-09. Except in 1995, the year for which we saw his taxes and that loss, the stock market was up over 1/3.
The election is 5 weeks from tomorrow. It is hard to imagine that if the current national margin is 5 points that Trump will come back. Remember, at 4 points Obama won 332 electoral votes. I cannot think of an election in my lifetime where a candidate 5 points up 5 weeks out lost the election. Can you?
The continuation of bad news for Trump continues. I think today’s Kurt Eichenwald story on Trump’s use of Chinese steel and aluminum is going to hurt in the Rust Belt- but also in other states that lost metal jobs.
Dana Houle has consistently said that he thinks Clinton’s final national margin will exceed that of Obama in 2008. That was 6.9%. I think that is possible.
What do you think?