For all the following reasons, I think this debate was a decisive win for Clinton, and a disaster for Trump, even if he appealed to his base in a way to hold them
Why? Consider the following:
Saying he would have his AG appoint a special prosecutor… and he would put her in jail.
His bad physical presence, pacing, and most of all, looming over her with his sour face LURKER
he will get slaughtered by fact-checkers
he admitted for all practical purpose that he does NOT pay federal payroll taxes
his compliment to her at the end, that she never gives up and is a fighter totally undermines his previous attempts to call her lacking energy etc.
he blew it with the Muslim woman — that may have been blowing his best chance to fix part of his problems
his interruptions — 18 times he interrupted her, and she interrupted her once
he threw his running mate under the bus, effectively choosing Putin over Pence
he turned off suburban college-educated white women, starting with his press event before, and his citing of Juanita Broaddrick in the debate
he never smiled — she did often
his denying that he told people to check out the sex tape
his complaining about the moderators
his not staying even close to the question asked, but insisting on repeating his talking points
his not engaging with the the questioners in the audience.
BUT the most single destructive thing he said tonight is that he eventually, when challenged by Anderson Cooper, that he ever did ever did anything of what he talked about on the Access Hollywood debate. Sorry, but that now guarantees more women will come forward, and that eventually even more tape/video/audio WILL come out.
If that was not the most egregious statement, what would be is his saying he would appoint a special prosecutor to go after Clinton, and his later saying he would put Clinton in jail. That is banana republic language — it is what we have seen from his favorite leader, Vladimir Putin, and people are going to focus on that. On CNN Paul Begala pointed out how that was redolent of Richard Nixon.
That Trump did much better than he did in the first debate, maybe, but irrelevant, primarily because his performance in the first debate was so horrid. His only really good moment was at the end, when he complimented her on her tenacity, in a positive way. But that undercut his previous attacks on her for her lack of stamina.
After the debate, both Hillary and Bill immediately engaged the audience, many of whom wanted their pictures taken with the Clintons. For a while, Trump was only with his family, then tried to do as Clinton was doing, but then gave it up and left.
We have gone back and forth between CNN and MSNBC. On MSNBC Chuck Todd made clear that Trump is going to have a very bad next 48 hours.
On CNN, I listen to Jake Tapper and Michael Smerconish point out how what Trump said and did would not appeal to white suburban college educated women in places like the Philly suburbs or the I-4 corridor in Florida.
Trump was obnoxious.
As far as I can see, Trump demonstrated his lack of appropriate temperament.
Could Clinton have been better? Sure, but she was more than good enough.
I asked a question in my tweeting. Is it possible that Trump could drop to 30% in the polling data? My expectation is that given all we have had recently as the polling continues, Trump will continue to drop.
UPDATE 12:03 AM “I think this will go down as the scowling stalker debate.” — Eugene Robinson
UPDATE 2 12:08 AM — Frank Luntz tweeted early, before the debate, that only ¼ of his panel had seen the Access Hollywood tape. My guess is that is will get a wider viewing audience, and that will further depress Trump’s support.