Sorry this is a day later than I expected. Fort Bend County is located southwest of Harris County and is the largest suburban county in Greater Houston by population. I work there, have since April, but it is so close that parts of it are just collectively known as Southwest Houston.
Writing this is something I thought about happening four years from now, but Democrats in Fort Bend are on the ball. In 2012, just under 220,000 votes were cast. President Obama lost by 15,000 votes. They did set a record for number of registered voters in the county and there was a late surge of registrations.
The question is why will this county flip? The density map above based on census tracts shows heavy minority density along the county line. That line runs from northwest to southeast. The heaviest population centers are there and along the two highways running roughly southwest.
The population of the county is 716,000 and growing. It is roughly 21%, Black, 19% Asian, and 24% Hispanic. It is 35% White alone according to the census data. What I find fascinating is the suburban/rural divide that happens in the county. Over the years, as the county has grown, power shifted from the southern, rural areas to the northern urbanizing zones. Not to say the the GOP doesn’t have a powerful presence there. (My ‘father-in-law’ is a cranky old white man who votes straight GOP no matter what. He’s a very typical old school Ft Bend voter.)
Just to really show why demographics will play a key role in this: In 2010 the population of Ft Bend was 584,000 people. Estimates in 2014 had it at 685,000. Now it is at 716,000. There is a rich tapestry of people in the county. There is a large Indian (sub-continent) presence as well as Chinese and Vietnamese. Missouri City has a very large and powerful Black population. There is an old Hispanic population in the county seat of Richmond.
The trends have been running against the GOP here and given the exploding growth and demographic shifts, that could trigger a natural change, but the Fort Bend Democrats have been out in force with registration drives and other GOTV efforts. Those activities really matter. I’ve seen it up close. Don’t discount how pissed off minorities are in getting the vote out.
In my heart of hearts I am expecting Hillary Clinton to carry Fort Bend by several thousand votes. There is a number I have in mind, but just sliding it into the blue shades will make the GOP crap themselves.
Early voting in Texas starts Monday. This will be a perfect weekend for block walking. GOTV.