In the aftermath of the release of the Access Hollywood video on October 7th, one writer described the Trump campaign as like a horse galloping away with its rider shot, in other words, the Trump campaign was still moving, but it was fatally wounded. It has become obvious to me that this vivid metaphor not only applies to the Trump campaign, but instead to the Republican party as they face the gathering storm of an electoral wipe out on November 8th. Hillary Clinton will be our next President, she will come into office with a Democratic Senate and with a House that is either in Democratic hands, or one that retains a Republican majority by a very slim margin. This is Part I of a four part series looking at the Presidential race, the Senate races, the House races and some of the immediate implications of what the trifecta (or near trifecta) means for legislation in 2017.
PresidentialThis one’s over. Even the Trump campaign knows it. With Hillary Clinton currently sitting on a lead of 6%-8% in the polls, her vastly superior ground game and GOTV operation could push her margin of victory to 10+%. I think that’s a quite likely outcome. With the electorate projected to be the most ethnically and racially diverse ever, Trump’s struggles with minorities and college educated whites will be an anvil around the neck of his campaign. Pew projects the makeup of the electorate to be 69% white and 31% non-white. With Trump struggling to get to 20% among latino voters and stuck in single digits among black voters, Hillary Clinton could get as much as 85% of the non-white vote. If this were to hold true and Clinton were to get 40% of the white vote (Obama got 43% and 39% of whites), that would result in her receiving 54% of the vote — the highest amount of the vote attained since Ronald Reagan in 1984 (George HW Bush got 53.37% in 1988). If Sec. Clinton did indeed get to 54% of the vote (or indeed, any amount over 50%), the share of the vote going to third parties would likely mean that Trump’s ceiling is the low 40s, and perhaps the high 30s, as has been the case in polling this entire campaign. We would be looking at a margin of victory between 10%-15% in that case.
The Obama Wall (272 Electoral Votes)
As it currently stands, Sec Clinton has 272 EVs locked down. She leads by at least 5% in all these states, and Trump has not led in any of them this entire cycle.
Sec Clinton has secured a big enough lead in enough states that the result of the election is not in doubt.These states — “an Obama wall”, consisting of states (minus NV, FL, OH and IA) that Obama won in both 2008 and 2012, present an insurmountable challenge to Donald Trump (and quite possibly to whoever the GOP nominates in 2020). This is the fabled “Blue Wall” plus New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia, and all are likely to be called very early for Hillary Clinton on election night.
Polling aggregators agree that HRC’s base is at least 272 EV — infographic from NYtimes.comThe Emerging Blue States (50 Electoral Votes)
Nevada, Florida and North Carolina due to changing demographics are out of reach for the Trump campaign, and while polls haven’t showed as consistent and as large a lead for these states, I expect them to fall easily to Clinton.
Demographics have pushed these states away from TrumpTrump’s Last Stand (25 Electoral Votes)
Ohio and Iowa (in addition to the EV awarded to Maine’s 2nd congressional district) are the two states this entire cycle that President Obama won in 2008 and 2012 that have presented openings to Donald Trump. If he had ran a better campaign, perhaps he could have picked these two off, but with the polls in these states showing tight races, her superior ground game will win these two.
The New Battlegrounds (28 Electoral Votes)
With Trump’s camp struggling mightily to maintain a semblance of a competitive campaign apparatus, he is unable to defend Arizona and Georgia (and Nebraska CD 2) where tightening polls have invited forays from democrats. The Clinton campaign has made a late, heavy play for Arizona, sending high impact surrogates and spending at least $2 million, while the democratic party has upped its investment in Georgia (will Clinton follow as well?) Polls indicate a slight Clinton lead in Arizona and a very tight race in Georgia. The fact that the Trump campaign is unable to defend these emerging battlegrounds leads me to believe they will fall in the Clinton column on Nov 8th.
Battlegrounds that will determine how far above 300 EVs Clinton reachesThe above states (along with Nebraska CD 2) total 375 EVs (higher than Pres. Obama’s total in 2008 & 2012). I see this as the most likely outcome. But what happens if Clinton’s win stretches above 10%, as I think it could?
Total Trump Collapse (77 Electoral Votes)
If Trump is held below 40%, or even if he manages 40-42%, then Hillary Clinton will win some states that even her team did not expect at the start of this campaign. The results in the following states will likely be closer than anyone expected and Sec. Clinton may be able to pull off a surprise win in one or more of them.
Dream targetsUtah, South Carolina, Texas, Alaska, Missouri, and Indiana are, for differing reasons, not locked down by Trump, even at this late stage in the campaign. A total collapse on his part, with his loss stretching above 10%, will put some of these states in play come November 8th. Evan McMullin’s strong challenge in Utah will make it a fascinating watch on election night, but in this category, all eyes will be on Texas — I anticipate an excruciatingly close result in the Lone Star state. Texas could be the Florida of 2016 — a large state where every vote has to be counted before the race is called.
Trump never really had a chanceNot much more needs to be said about the presidential race. This race has never really been in much doubt, but that doesn’t mean we should let up. Volunteer and let’s close the door on the long national nightmare of the Donald J. Trump campaign.
NEXT: The race for the Senate, where I think Democrats will end up with somewhere between 52 - 55 seats.