Right now it is all about the early voting, and Team Hillary is pulling out all the stops.
The early results are very encouraging out of Florida, North Carolina and Nevada.
1. North CarolinaDemocrats Leading Big in NC Early Voting, Hillary 63% to Trump 37%, Cooper 61% to McCrory 61% to 33%, Ross 52% to Burr 34%.
PPP released their latest poll out of North Carolina.
Democrats Leading Big in NC Early Voting
PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds that Democrats are running up large leads already during early voting. Among those who say they've already voted, 63% say they cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton to only 37% for Donald Trump. Interestingly, less than half of a percent say they voted for Gary Johnson, which could be a sign that he won't end up getting that much more support than a normal third party candidate. The big Democratic advantage holds down ballot as well. Roy Cooper leads Pat McCrory 61-33 for Governor among those who have already voted, with Libertarian Lon Cecil at 1%.
Deborah Ross leads Richard Burr 52-34 for Senate, with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 7% among those who say they have already cast their ballots. “It’s already clear that Democrats will go into Election Day with a substantial advantage in North Carolina,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s just going to be a question of whether Republicans can do well enough on the big day itself to overcome their deficit.”
This is incredible. 63% to 37% early voting advantage in NC. 61% to 33% advantage for Cooper against McCrory, Ross leads Burr 52% to 34%.
If this continues on, the GOP will have a mountain to climb on November 8, will have a deficit so massive going into Nov. 8 that they can’t possibly overcome.
2. FloridaHighlights:
Early vote-by-mail returns: Roughly 406,000 Democrats have returned their ballots versus 421,000 Republican ballots, a less than one percent gap (compared to the five percent difference in 2012). This year Democrats outpaced Republicans in new voter registrations by 53,000 — 259,000 Democrats to 203,000 Republicans. Since 2012 Democrats have added nearly 692,000 new voters compared to 593,000 Republicans, a Democratic advantage of nearly 100,000 new voters. More diverse: In October 2012,Florida’s electorate was 67 percent white versus 64 percent in 2016 – a 3 percent drop. Similarly, in 2012 the electorate was 33 percent was comprised of non-white voters versus 36 percent non-white voters today.Tampa Bay Times:
Clinton Florida campaigns boasts about get-out-the-vote effort
As early, in-person voting starts today in most Florida counties, Hillary Clinton's Florida campaign is touting its get-out-the-vote effort that includes 90,000 volunteers, 82 field offices, celebs , bus tours, "Souls to the polls,' block parties and caravanas, and college campus shuttle programs. Florida Director Simone Ward in a memo also notes that Democrats that the electorate is more diverse, that Democrats added 50,000-plus more voters to the rolls this year than Republicans, and that Democrats significantly cut the GOP's traditional mail ballot advantage.
"As we kick off the first day of in-person early vote in numerous counties across Florida, over 1 million voters have cast their votes and another 2.2 million requested their vote-by-mail ballots. Democrats made history this year by closing the Republican advantage in vote-by-mail ballot requests and returns – roughly 406,000 Democrats have returned their ballots versus 421,000 Republican ballots, a less than one percent gap (compared to the five percent difference in 2012)," she wrote.
Here is the full memo from Simone Ward:
To: Interested Parties Memo
From: Simone Ward, Florida State Director, Hillary for America
Date: Monday, October 24, 2016
RE: GOTV
The day has arrived – in-person early voting begins today in many counties across the state of Florida. After more than a year of hard work, Hillary for Florida stands more prepared, organized and energized than ever as we enter our final phase of the campaign: Get Out The Vote.
Our organizers and thousands of volunteers have been able to build a game-winning ground operation designed to engage, register, and turn out Florida’s expansive and diverse electorate. We feel confident that we will deliver the state of Florida for Hillary Clinton and Democrats up and down the ticket, but realize there’s much more work to be done.
What We’ve Accomplished:
• Democrats successfully outpaced Republicans in registering new voters, therefore expanding our electorate. In this year alone, nearly 754,000 new voters were added to the rolls, of which 259,000 were Democrats and 206,000 Republicans- giving Democrats a seven point advantage.
In fact, Democrats have added nearly 692,000 new voters to the rolls since 2012 versus 593,000 Republicans – and the trends continue to go upward in our favor.
• Moreover, Democrats have made significant gains in diversifying the state’s electorate. In October 2012, Florida’s electorate was 67 percent white versus 64 percent in 2016 – a 3 percent drop. Similarly, in 2012 the electorate was 33 percent was comprised of non-white voters versus 36 percent non-white voters today.
• Lastly - despite earlier reports – during the final months of voter registration Democrats outpaced Republicans in re-registration (party switchers), with September welcoming nearly 13,000 more Democratic voters
• As we kick off the first day of in-person early vote in numerous counties across Florida, over 1 million voters have cast their votes and another 2.2 million requested their vote-by-mail ballots.Democrats made history this year by closing the Republican advantage in vote-by-mail ballot requests and returns – roughly 406,000 Democrats have returned their ballots versus 421,000 Republican ballots, a less than one percent gap (compared to the five percent difference in 2012).
• Hillary for Florida and the Florida Democratic Party have 82 field offices statewide that have served as hubs for volunteers to register thousands of Florida voters and will now be centers for our campaign’s turnout operation. These offices will train and launch more than 90,000 volunteers to hit the doors in communities across Florida, so voters can exercise their right to vote during the Early Vote period and on Election Day.
The Get Out the Vote (GOTV) Operation that Will Deliver Florida:
Hillary for Florida’s robust ground operation will focus all of its energy on ensuring every possible supporter of Hillary Clinton and the Democratic ticket casts a vote in the 2016 election. Voting in Florida has never been easier – as in-person early voting begins, eligible Florida residents have three voting methods at their disposal: voting by mail, in-person early voting, and in-person voting on Election Day, November 8th.
For the final 15 days until Election Day, our organizers and volunteers will:
• Knock on millions of doors across the state to contact targeted voters and educate them on their options to cast their ballot. With three options to cast their vote, our campaign will ensure that voters have an opportunity to make their voices heard in this election.
• Expand our presence in communities across the state by launching “staging locations”-- local hubs where volunteers come together to go out and knock doors, make phone calls and reach out to fellow Floridians. These staging locations will add firepower to our existing 82 official campaign offices, hundreds of volunteer-homes and local community gathering spaces that ensure Hillary for Florida is active in nearly every target neighborhood in the state.
• Answer tens of thousands of calls on our multilingual Voter Assistance Hotline (844- M4HILL), where volunteers will provide callers information about polling locations, hours of operation and ID requirements.
• Engage key constituency groups statewide to build excitement of in-person voting and, ultimately, Election Day including:
o Three bus tours with Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) members, Mayors for Hillary, and President Bill Clinton.
o “Get Out the Early Vote” concerts with Jennifer Lopez and Jon Bon Jovi in Miami and Tampa, respectively.
o College campus GOTV shuttle program to drive student voters to the nearest early vote sites through this early voting period.
o “Happy Birthday, Hillary!” events to celebrate Hillary’s birthday by encouraging supporters to cast their vote early.
o “Souls to the Polls” program where hundreds of Florida’s faith leaders and congregants will push their fellow worshipers to vote on Saturdays and Sundays leading up to Election Day.
o Caravanas and block parties to where neighbors will “March to the Polls” together to cast their vote for Hillary Clinton and Democrats up and down the ticket.
With more people voting than ever before, this year’s election will prove to be a historic one. From now until Election Day, Hillary for Florida will host nearly a hundred early voting events, launch tens of thousands of volunteer canvassing and phone banking shifts, and knock on millions of doors in nearly every neighborhood in the state.
On the first day of in-person early vote, our Florida operation is more prepared than ever to turn out our supporters, deliver the state, and ensure that Hillary Clinton becomes the next president of the United States.
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Very good news out of Florida. We added more voters to the new voter and party switcher rolls in Florida this year than Republicans. So far, in early voting (mail-in ballots only) we have come very close to Republican returns to the tune of less than 1%. That compares very well to 2012’s 5% mail-in-ballot advantage the GOP held in 2012.
Also read through the memo about all the things Team Hillary is doing on the ground to get the in-person early vote out, which started today. They are pulling out all the stops, leave no stone unturned.
3. NevadaWashington Post:
Topline:
At the end of Saturday, Democratic staffers celebrated news that 39,148 people had voted in Clark County – compared to 33,187 in 2012. Of those, 55 percent were registered Democrats and 27 percent were registered Republicans.
In Clark County, by far the largest county in Nevada, almost 20% more people voted on the first day of voting than did in 2012. 55% Democrats to 27% Republicans in that tally. That is a very good sign for us in Nevada.
How Democrats are dominating early voting in Nevada
Katy Perry’s glamor, Tom Steyer’s money, Univision’s megaphone and organized labor’s muscle, along with a late assist from Barack Obama, each helped lubricate Harry Reid’s well-oiled political machine over the past 48 hours.
The media tends to focus on the lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton relative to President Obama, which is real, but a few thousand more ballots were cast in Nevada on Saturday -- during the first day of early voting -- than during the kickoff day four years ago, when there was a similar flurry of activity to propel Democrats to the polls. And that was before Air Force One touched down yesterday afternoon.
It is a testament to the power of the organization that Reid, the retiring Senate Minority Leader, has built over three decades, which he is now using to get Clinton and his hand-picked successor, Catherine Cortez Masto, across the finish line.
Well, aside from the errant comment that there is “lack of enthusiasm for Hillary” the writer lays out very well that Hillary’s ground game in Nevada has no peer, certainly clearly outclassing Trump’s meek ground game that has shown up so far. Harry Reid’s vaunted Nevada ground machine is in full swing for Hillary as well.
This is a very good article showing the spectacular ground work that is going on in Nevada from the Democrats. You should read all that’s done. Trump has very little to put against that. Democrats will overwhelm team Trump in the battleground states with their massive ground game advantage.
The bulk of Nevada’s Democratic voters are concentrated in Clark County, which includes Vegas. During a two-week window, the race is on to lock in Clinton’s narrow advantage in the polls by getting as many of her supporters as possible to one of 97 early voting sites. The Reid machine, fully activated, is a sight to behold.
...
Many Republicans familiar with Nevada worry about this nightmare scenario: If Trump loses decisively along the Eastern seaboard—New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and/or Florida—the networks could declare that Clinton is the president-elect before polls even close in Nevada. Many core GOP voters typically cast their ballots while commuting home from work. What if a couple percent of them decide that the election is over and it’s not worth waiting in line? Because Republicans are so reliant on these voters, and Democrats will have so many votes locked in from early voting, it could lead to a down-ticket bloodbath. At the very least, it could tip a close Senate race to Cortez Masto.
I’ll highlight all the areas that this article discusses in depth when it comes to Hillary’s (and Reid’s) ground game in Nevada. Please read the article to get the details:
-- Unions play a huge role.
-- A few hours later, pop star Katy Perry drew a diverse, young crowd of 500 to the courtyard in front of the student union at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
-- Early voting also gives Democrats more opportunities to turn out Latinos who have never voted before. Mi Familia Vota and Voto Latino co-hosted a four-hour block party Saturday afternoon in the parking lot of a mall that has an early voting site.
-- The Clinton team is investing heavily in door-to-door canvassing to run up their early vote numbers.
-- Part of the Democratic strategy is to unashamedly pester people until they vote.
--This turns out to be a powerful incentive in a state where almost every commercial is about the election.
Asked why she went on the first day, she said: “We got tons of texts saying early voting started this morning – from the Clinton campaign people, from the climate change people, from the party people.”
-- Hitting the churches.
-- Five hours later, Obama arrived in Kihuen’s congressional district for a rally aimed primarily at turning out African Americans.
-- The Republican effort to push early voting pales in comparison, and it certainly lacks the star power.
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President Obama talks with Democratic Senate candidate Catherine Cortez Masto and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid after speaking at Cheyenne High School in North Las Vegas on Sunday. (Susan Walsh/AP) POTUS in North Las Vegas (Ethan Miller/Getty Images) After last week's debate in Vegas, Hillary Clinton dropped by an outdoor watch party with Mexican singer Vicente Fernández, left, and Democratic House candidate Ruben Kihuen, right. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post) Katy Perry speaks at UNLV on Saturday. (John Locher/AP)Team Hillary’s ground game looks amazing. And, you see these kinds of efforts duplicated in all the battleground states.
CALL TO VOLUNTEERI myself have phone banked and canvassed quite a bit so far, so has my wife with me, every time (she’s a trooper, but she is so excited about getting Hillary elected, which gives her wings.) We’ll be doing so again this weekend, 2 shifts a total of 6 hours on Sunday. Even our 19 year old daughter has gotten involved (her first time voting) and has phone banked a few hours last weekend.
Please help. I urge everybody to help out with GOTV. We are looking very good in the polls, overall, but we need to do everything we can to also win over the Senate and possibly even the House. Great turnout means a huge, mandate win for Hillary and many Democratic down ticket candidates swept in to boot in a wave.
Volunteer form here:
xWe're up in the polls—that's great. But when the wind's at your back, it's time to run faster. Be a part of this: https://t.co/LejwAMLgmQpic.twitter.com/xp4PqzZhvP
— Senator Tim Kaine (@timkaine) October 14, 2016"When the wind's at your back it’s time to run faster”