Day 2 of early voting in Florida has some great news for Democrats according to Steve Schale and look to Duval county for some troubling news for Donald Trump.
EV numbers this close in conservative Duval county is incredible news for Democrats. According to Schale, without numbers closer to Bush’s margin of victory in 2004, Trump can’t win FL.
Entire analysis can be found here: steveschale.squarespace.com
Republican Duval County. Over the last two elections, Barack Obama was able to keep the Duval margins manageable, averaging losses of about 10,000 votes. By comparison, Bush won the county by 61,000 in 2004, a number that Trump would need to get closer to if he was going to win Florida.
Well right now, Republicans are doing about as well in Duval as the Jaguars. Democrats won the second consecutive day of in person early voting, and now only trail Republicans in total VBM/EV by about 440 votes. Even more ominous: it only took two days for total in person early voting to overtake two weeks of vote by mail returns.
Schale says EV in FL is pointing to an even more diverse electorate than 2012, plus our voter base is expanding!
For those predicting a more white electorate, I think they will be very surprised. It’s time pundits and pollsters recognize that people of color should no longer be taken for granted.
Black voters (in Florida, that is both African American and Caribbean) made up about 15% of all first day early voters.
Hispanic voters were about 13%, and non-Hispanic white about 67%.
Based on these numbers, I would project we are headed towards an electorate that is more diverse than 2012.
Also, here is one more for you: among first day of early voting Democratic and NPA Hispanics, 44% were either first time voters, or only voting in their second ever general election. In other words, these voters are expanding the electorate.
And how are Democrats doing along the critical I-4 corridor?
Democrats won every county that is on I-4, except Seminole County (we can't expect to win a county so Republican that you have to go back to Truman to find a Democrat who carried it every day). Overall for the day, Democrats won 45-35.
x🚨🚨 In every county reporting along the national bellwether I-4 corridor (Seminole hasn't), Democrats win Day 2 of in person early vote. 🚨🚨
— Steve Schale (@steveschale) October 26, 2016 xDems also win GOP-leaning Volusia County (Daytona) on day 2, by roughly same narrow margin as day 1.
— Steve Schale (@steveschale) October 26, 2016 xDay 2 of Orange County (Orlando) outpaced Day 1. Dems crush it again there, win 50-28%.
— Steve Schale (@steveschale) October 26, 2016 xAlready 20,000 more people in Broward County, FL have in person early voted today. Roughly 3:1 Democratic so far.
— Steve Schale (@steveschale) October 25, 2016 xHere is a nice stat for you from Florida: Roughly 44% of Dem and NPA Hispanics who voted early yesterday are "unlikely" voters.
— Steve Schale (@steveschale) October 25, 2016 xDay 2 in conservative Duval, FL: Dems win again. Now trail GOP in total EV/ABS votes by less than 500. This is a place Trump must crush it.
— Steve Schale (@steveschale) October 26, 2016 xIn bellwether Hillsborough, Dems extend in person early lead. Lead in all votes cast (EV/abs) by 7.5% after day 2.
— Steve Schale (@steveschale) October 26, 2016 xMore Democrats have voted in Broward County today (+12,000) than Republicans have voted in Indian River over two weeks (7,500). https://t.co/bFarNAqHkC
— Steve Schale (@steveschale) October 25, 2016~
You can check out Schale’s entire day 2 analysis at the link above.
Great news for Democrats, but let’s keep working to make this a wave election!