Some very good news from early voting in North Carolina. The New York Times’ Upshot has been running a real-time estimate of early voting results, and they look very encouraging for the blue team.
As I write this, just over two million people have voted, and Hillary is estimated to lead Donald Trump by just over 10 points, 52.9-42.7. If this holds, Upshot estimates that Hillary will carry the state by just under six points, 49.1-43.2. No doubt Fox News was watching this trend; it probably explains why it moved North Carolina to “lean Democratic” yesterday.
Two things are worth noting. One, this comes with early voting hours being slashed. Two, almost half of the state’s likely voters have already voted. Including yours truly—I voted on the second day of early voting.
If these numbers hold, Trump is in yuuuuge trouble. If you add Virginia’s 13 votes to the 242 that have gone Democratic in every election since 1992 (since Trump has effectively ceded the state to Hillary), then Hillary would have 255 electoral votes in her column. Add North Carolina’s 15 votes to that total, and that would make 270. End of ballgame.
Realistically speaking, though, if Hillary wins North Carolina, then the worst-case scenario is a 294-244 Hillary victory—assuming that Trump flips Florida, Iowa, and Ohio.
This should be all the more reason, though, to vote early if you haven’t done so, and get out in large numbers next Tuesday. Run it up where you can—it’s the only way to shut Trump up.