Taking an interesting perspective, “Common Dreams” contributor, Robert Borosage, posted an article today entitled “Iowa’s Big Winner: Senator Bernie Sanders”.
The results of the Iowa caucuses won’t be known until late this evening, but we already know the big winner: Senator Bernie Sanders.
The 24/7 chattering classes focus on whether Sanders’ young and new voters will turn out, whether his voters’ enthusiasm can match Clinton’s organization, whether the blizzard will hit before or after the caucuses. But Iowa isn’t about who wins the most delegates; it is about who gains momentum and legitimacy. Whether he wins or loses in the final caucus count, Sanders is already assured of coming out of Iowa with momentum and legitimacy. The “fringe” candidate is for real. The prohibitive favorite has been pushed to the wall.
It is a very tight, extremely well-argued piece about how Sanders is actually quite different from previous insurgent candidates, and why even a loss in Iowa will not significantly change the dynamic of the race:
The press has focused on polling that shows Sanders with wide leads among the young and new voters, while Clinton’s strength is among older and experienced caucus-goers. The Sanders campaign faces immense turnout challenges as a result, but he’s demonstrated that millennials – the largest and most diverse segment of the population – are looking beyond the offerings of socially liberal, corporate Democrats for a bolder and more populist politics.
Sanders also appeals, not surprisingly, to the party’s liberals, professionals, technical workers and activists. But Clinton is also very popular among liberals and professionals. The Jacobin’s Matt Karp offers an additional insight into the Sanders coalition: “A good deal of evidence suggests that Sanders has assembled a rather different kind of voter coalition than any primary challenger of the past generation — that he is the rare ‘progressive’ candidate who can actually win over white working-class voters.”
Karp points to a September Quinnipiac poll that showed Sanders with a 19-point lead among voters making less than $30,000 while Clinton led by 14 points among voters making more than $100,000. A more recent Quinnipiac polls shows that trend sharpening. More extensive polling in New Hampshire shows Sanders faring better among voters making less than $50,000, while Clinton does best among voters making at least six figures.
If these trends hold up, they will be a stark contrast to the support garnered by earlier “insurgent” candidacies of Barack Obama or Bill Bradley or Howard Dean. Their appeal was largely among affluent, young professionals. Clinton’s comeback in New Hampshire in 2008 was fueled by the support among working people, particularly women. Obama cleaned up in voters making six figures or more.
And this suggests that Sanders’ appeal comes from his integrity – his independence of big money and willingness to take it on and call it out – and his platform. It suggests that, at least in Iowa and New Hampshire, working class voters are tuning in on what he has to say.
Borosage goes on to offer what he admits is “a musing” how even the proverbial Clinton “firewall” could conceivably fall:
He’ll have the resources to be competitive. He’ll have to introduce himself and his ideas, with little time to do so. But his platform will appeal if it gets heard. As Black Lives Matter and the Dreamers have shown, throughout the black and Latino communities, young organizers are impatient with their leaders, angry at conditions, and ready to force change. Generally, blacks and Latinos tend to vote cautiously, better the “devil we know.” But these are not cautious times. The African-American and Latino middle classes were devastated in the Great Recession, and have had the hardest time recovering from it. From Ferguson to Flint, the afflictions imposed on these communities are getting exposed. As Sanders introduces himself, he may generate a surprisingly receptive response.
But the piece ends very confidently that, win or lose, the Sanders phenomenon, at this stage in the game, has come too far and has accomplished too much to be affected by any single caucus:
...what Sanders has already won is very real. He’s put forth a bold, populist agenda. He’s challenged the grip of big money on our politics. And he’s shown that his message can electrify the young and attract working people.
In this, Sanders has already begun to shake the establishment, evidenced by increasingly vitriolic attacks on him and his ideas. Sanders is putting the powers that be on notice. This rigged system doesn’t work for the vast majority of Americans. And the complacent politics of the establishment center offer no way out. The elites of both parties better figure out how to cut Americans a better deal – or Americans will demand a new dealer.
So whatever the caucus results, congratulations, Senator Sanders. You come out of Iowa with momentum. Your campaign is challenging the limits of our political debate. You are, without doubt, Monday night’s big winner.
I do like the way this guy thinks.