Bernie's path to victory: Wisconsin and Beyond!

Bernie is at 92% of 538’s estimate if the race were tied nationally.

After the March primaries/caucuses and re-allocation from earlier races, Bernie has 1038 delegates. Bernie’s pledged delegate deficit now sits at 228. That means he needs to win 988 of the remaining 1747 delegates or 56.5% to secure the majority of pledged delegates.

We started out on March 16 needing almost 60% of remaining delegates, that is now down to 56.5% of those remaining.

This is a difficult task, but it is doable. If we can GOTV and organize in the remaining states.

Here is what’s been achieved since Super Tuesday:

STATE DELEGATES TYPE 538 TARGET SUBIR TARGET result Net Gain

AZ	75	Closed Primary	41	46	31	-13
ID	23	Open Caucus	14	16	18	13
UT	33	Open Caucus	19	21	27	21
Abroad	13	Open Caucus	6.5	7	9	5
AK	16	Closed Caucus	9	10	13	10
HI	25	Closed Caucus	13	15	17	9
WA	101	Modified Caucus	59	66	74	47
TOTAL	286		161.5	181	189	92

h/t Demosten

Hillary won 97 delegates over the same period and the delegate deficit was reduced by 92 delegates. When we factor in delegates re-allocated to Bernie in GA, TX and IL, the delegate deficit has been reduced by almost a hundred. I have not factored in unconfirmed pickups in CO, NV and other states. Will wait on Green Papers to confirm. Demosten has been tracking county/state conventions carefully and has noticed that Clinton pick-ups are rather rare. We’re not certain exactly why, perhaps more Clinton delegates are no-shows or switch to Bernie. We hesitate to ascribe reasons, but the Clinton campaign has to bear some responsibility for not being able to protect primary/caucus night margins through the complete state process.

We need 988 additional delegates. In the table below, I’ve taken the 538 delegate estimates for a nationally-tied race and scaled them up to arrive at 988.

Like all models, the 538 model doesn’t reflect reality. It has consistently under-estimated the strength of both Bernie and Hillary in the regions more amenable to their respective messages. However, it is widely used and cited, both in the press and here. In the absence of a better public model, I’ll stick with my simplistic approach of scaling up the 538 figures till I arrive at the required number. I know other Kossacks have developed independent metrics that may well be better (in particular see Rei’s notes). I’ve also referenced Demosten’s targets and he has a pretty detailed and good model. There is definitely value to that, and I will publish a diary next week giving my own take on NY. But for this analysis, I just like to keep it simple, so here are the targets.

STATE DELEGATES TYPE 538 TARGET SUBIR TARGET SUBIR TARGET VOTE ‘08

WI	86	Open Primary	48	53	60.6%
WY	14	Closed Caucus	9	10	68.8%
NY	247	Closed Primary	125	138	58%
CT	55	Closed Primary	28	31	54.2%
DE	21	Closed Primary	10	11	50%
MD	95	Closed Primary	42	46	50%
PA	189	Closed Primary	96	106	56.3%
RI	24	Modified Primary	13	14
IN	83	Open Primary	44	48
GU	7	Closed Caucus	3.5	4
WV	29	Modified Primary	17	19
KY	55	Closed Primary	28	31
OR	61	Closed Primary	37	41
VI	7	Closed Caucus	3.5	4
PR	60	Closed Caucus	30	33
CA	475	Modified Primary	239	264
MT	21	Open Primary	13	14
NJ	126	Modified Primary	61	67
NM	34	Closed Primary	18	20
SD	20	Closed Primary	12	13
ND	18	Open Caucus	11	12
DC	20	Closed Primary	8	9
TOTAL	1747		896	988

Torilahure provided the popular vote percentages that you see above in a diary he kindly put together. I should note that Torilahure is not necessarily rooting for Bernie, but has helped us out here in the best spirit of DKos collaboration.

A number of people believe Wisconsin and Wyoming might outperform the targets presented above (both 538’s and mine). Just keep in mind that 60.6% and 68.8% are already aggressive targets.

The underlying support for Bernie and his policies means we can win the primary, but it will require an all out effort to GoTV. So please, phonebank, canvas, do what is needed.