Democrats:
Really not much to add election wise since last edition. Hillary Clinton has won the nomination in a rather orderly series of victories (save Michigan which was crazy!) What has begun to play out is the “what’s next for Sanders?” issue. I have a simple view of the matter, broken down into four basic parts.
The first is it would be a big mistake for Sanders to assume that he can exert very much leverage. If there is anything I know in my years of dealing with politicians it is that they do not let themselves get bossed around by the people they beat. That just doesn’t happen. Clinton first and foremost is going to expect to be treated like any other victorious nominee and rightly so. Just because she is a woman doesn’t mean she doesn’t get the spoils of war. She will get control of the DNC, the convention, and the entire electoral national political apparatus. She will also have the biggest surrogate anyone can get and the full machinery of the White House and Obama’s Chicago-based network at her disposal. So Sanders really doesn’t have much leverage to make her do anything and the sooner he realizes that the better.
The second is Sanders’ endorsement has a depreciation schedule. The more the days pass, the less value it has. As the convention planning begins to ramp up, management of squares on the calendar becomes crucial to organization of victory. The highest value of the endorsement is immediately after the end of voting. But as the days trend towards Clinton’s convention acceptance speech, she will be more looking to make her move with the VP pick which will certainly be much much bigger news than a Sanders endorsement. The closer he gets to her VP pick announcement, the less of a big deal she is going to make out of his endorsement. He waits too long, he’s going to get a terse press release that says “Thanks.” Clinton’s VP rollout is agenda item #1, not Bernie Sanders. That party will promptly move on from him, trust me on this. He should understand that.
The third is Sanders own ambitions and what he want’s to do with himself and his people. I can only speculate what will be done. My guess is like most failed liberal presidential campaigns not much will come of it. I could very well be proven wrong. Whatever Sanders decides, my full belief is that at minimum 1) Schultz should be fired from the DNC, 2) His people should get a major voice in writing the platform, and 3) he should get a solid speaking slot (behind Clinton, the VP pick, Obama and Biden). Beyond that, I don’t believe much comes of the Sanders 2016 campaign but I would certainly like to see myself proven wrong on this front.
Fourth is money. Sanders is going to start getting all sorts of pressure from Clinton, Washington DC insiders, party apparatchiks, and desperate downballot candidates to turn over his fundraising list. To all Sanders campaign staff and supporters, please hear me loud and clear: DO NOT DO THIS. DO NOT GIVE THEM A SINGLE THING. You give that up and I can assure you Sanders will go right back into the lonely boy corner in the Senate after they rifle through his big ass purse and pillage it bare. No, no. You guys must guard that list like Fort Knox and do just like Obama and later Warren: use it for your own political purposes. If downballot Dems want your help, make them ask for it directly. They better be bringing some ironclad liberal promises to the table along with their pathetic hat in hand. They may be fellow Democrats, but at the end of the day people are people. And people, they’re mostly awful.
Verdict: Hillary Clinton wins orderly nomination and wins a comfortable but not convincing general election. (unchanged)
Republicans:
The pirate ship Donald Trump seems completely adrift at this point. Headed towards a guiding star but with no idea of currents, winds, or general mission. After a few weeks of staff turmoil and organizational fuck-ups on par with a collapsing campaign, Trump is still stumbling towards the nomination. As much as the GOP Establishment still imagines it can defeat him at the convention, I am still not buying it. I don’t think they have the balls. Because it would take a seriously boulder sized pair to block someone who has won the support of the people fair and square at the ballot box. I just don’t see what moron would be willing to play the GOP’s fall guy. So despite Trump learning running for President isn’t nearly as easy as the Manhattan real estate market, he’s going to be the GOP nominee.
The reason is because Ted Cruz isn’t stupid. Like I said last edition:
I think he knows he's not going to be the nominee, but he's young. A second place finish is probably a good place to be. Trump loses the general election and there he is. He's got a jump on everyone else in 2020.
So I still expect Trump and Cruz to eventually cut a deal and that’s that.
Verdict: Trump wins a contested convention but loses the general election by outside the margin of error numbers. (unchanged)