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That is the current prediction of Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics for the outcome of a race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

You can see his actual map here (and yes, I know I just linked to Newsmax but it is the same map just shown on MTP Daily by Chuck Todd, it is the only place I could find it online, and I am too tired to figure out how to cut and paste just the image).

Several keys to note:

He has two maps, the first with the fairly standard 247-206 advantage for the Democrats with toss-up states totaling 85 electoral votes:  CO, NV, IA, OH, VA, FL, and NH.

In the 2nd map, he pushes people so there are no tossups.  All of those states become Lean Democratic. So does previously lean NC with 15 electoral votes.

Given what we know about Latino registration and projected turnout, I think it is possible that he may be underestimating the impact of Latino vote, and I would look at the two of the four states he currently has as likely Republican — those being AZ and GA.  It is possible MO could also come into play albeit for different reasons.   I do not think IN would come into play.

I also think that VA is likely to be a bit more solidly Democratic — it all depends upon how many of the approximately 200,000 former felons whose voting rights will have been restored by Gov. McAuliffe will actually register.  A large proportion are African-American, with quite a few in the Danville area (not too far from a major prison), and it might be possible to contact them and get them registered.

I thought this worth at least bringing to people’s attention.


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