Pollster.com, aka Huffingtonpost.com/Pollster, updated a lot of its projections yesterday evening, giving us the state of the race BEFORE the first night of the Democratic convention. So consider the following.
Let’s first look at some key states, always giving you Clinton numbers first
AZ 44-45 now THAT is not good news for Trump
CO 43-38 as we found out yesterday, the state is not in the next round of ad buys for Clinton
FL 43-41 most pundits say that without FL Trump does not have a path
GA 40-44 not good for Trump if he has to play defense here
IA 44-42
MI 41-35
NH 44-39
NC 45-41 this is still most likely Romney state to flip to Dems
OH 43-43 no R has ever won w/o OH. Let’s see how this is after our convention & bus tour
PA 42-39
UT 30-35 still intrigues me. I think selection of Kaine w/his mission work makes this interesting
VA 42-37 with Kaine on ticket, this state is really no longer up for grabs
WI 46-38
So what is the overall picture, at a national level?
Clinton 43 Trump 42
That’s AFTER the Republican convention, taking into account polls released through yesterday.
That’s before our convention.
Yes, it has tightened, with that to be expected.
And while we are at it, Upshot Blog updated just after Midnight, having also updated in the earlier evening. It had closed, but it crept back open. The numbers represent percentage chances of winning. Overall Clinton 69-31. Their closest states, Clinton first:
NV 63-37
IA 60-40
FL 56-44
OH 53-37
NC 52-48
If you only give Clinton the states where her probabilities are 60% or better, she would still have 285 electoral votes, 15 more than necessary to win.
I still like where we are.