It’s now clear that Paul Manafort was pushed out of the Donald Trump campaign amid overwhelming evidence that his lobbying for former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych was not just unethical, but illegal. Within hours of the AP revealing overwhelming evidence that Manafort orchestrated an illicit lobbying campaign for Yanukovych, he was gone.
Manafort’s firm is now the target of a federal criminal investigation—one that will almost certainly focus on him personally at some point. He’s not a target for now personally, but it’s hard to believe he won’t be under the gun.
Even when that focus does shift, this investigation is going to take some time. But a statement from one of the lobbying firms involved in this scheme strongly suggests that we may learn more about Manafort’s illicit activities sooner than we think.
The Podesta Group, a Democratic-leaning lobbying firm helmed by the brother of HIllary campaign chairman John Podesta, has retained Caplin & Drysdale to review its work for Ukraine—specifically, its work for the European Centre for a Modern Ukraine, a nonprofit that, by all accounts, was a front for Yanukovych’s party. Its statement announcing the investigation all but accuses the Centre of bald-faced lying.
When the Centre became a client, it certified in writing that ‘none of the activities of the Centre are directly or indirectly supervised, directed, controlled, financed or subsidized in whole or in part by a government of a foreign country or a foreign political party.’ We relied on that certification and advice from counsel in registering and reporting under the Lobbying Disclosure Act rather than the Foreign Agents Registration Act. We will take whatever measures are necessary to address this situation based on Caplin & Drysdale’s review, including possible legal action against the Centre.
If Podesta Group is already talking about suing the Centre, that is by itself an ominous sign. But it’s very likely that Caplin & Drysdale’s review will inevitably turn to the role Manafort’s firm played in the scheme. Which means we could get a clearer picture of Manafort’s crimes a lot sooner than anyone thinks even if Manafort himself doesn’t testify in any civil trial.
I initially thought Manafort would be all but forced to testify under oath. But given the near certainty that this criminal probe will focus on him, he’d be a fool not to take the Fifth. Even if we don’t hear from him personally, we could know a lot more about his activities sooner than we could have hoped.